I really like running simulation models before sporting events because they can give you a much greater depth of understanding of team performance compared to the ‘raw’ odds that you might get from the media or bookmakers, or the often varied opinions of different sports pundits.
Yes, Ireland usually get knocked out in the Quarter Finals, and this is what many people are saying is most likely to happen again this year – but does the data show this? Pool C is the ‘pool of death’, right? With England, France and Argentina vying for qualification in the top two spots. Or, does Pool D hold that title, with Wales, Australia and Fiji battling it out? Oh, and we know Italy is having a tough time right now, but if we could have 10,000 world cups, would they win it even once?
That’s where a simulation can provide a lot of extra oompf for a little extra effort. If we can take the ‘raw’ odds but then add in some volatility then we can understand the distribution of outcomes.
That being said, with the Rugby World Cup 2019 officially starting in just over two weeks on 20 September, I thought I’d best run a simulation model. The model is relatively simple, but nevertheless I hope it can provide some insight into both the tournament and also more generally how to simulate a sporting competition!
Rating Data – How good is a team? Given that, how likely is team A to beat team B?
I used two different data sources:
World Rugby, the global governing body of rugby union, publishes official world rankings weekly. These have some shortcomings, although they’re widely followed by the media and have been around for many years.
Rugby Pass, a rugby broadcaster from New Zealand, publishes its Rugby Pass Index. It’s a bit of a black-box as they don’t publish their methodology, and it has only been around for a year, but they claim to use machine learning and it appears to work at player-granularity.
When plotted for each team, there is a fairly linear relationship between the two ratings systems, although the World Rugby rankings make a smaller gap between the lower and the higher teams.
I could write another post comparing the two ratings systems, but in a nutshell I believe Rugby Pass Index more accurately represents the current form of teams, although it doesn’t track the lower tier nations so well which the World Rugby rankings cover.
A source of recent volatility in the ratings has been the summer friendly matches, which are counted as full fixtures by both systems, although which may have been regarded by some teams as experimental/warm-up matches.
So I decided to take a consensus, using the mean of both ratings for each team, for before and after the summer friendly matches. To allow pathways for teams with performance improvement/drop between now and tournament start, a rand(-5,5) adjustment was made to each rating per simulation. Finally, Japan was given a 1.5pt home advantage adjustment as host.
The favourite team doesn’t always win – how much leeway for luck is there? We need a Distribution for Points Scored in a Rugby Match.
In a game like soccer, you get a lot of draws because goals don’t happen very often, at least compared to rugby where it’s not unusual to see 60pts or more scored per team. What does a distribution of points look like?
If we can define this then combined with the ‘raw’ probability of winning we can take random samples of it during multiple simulations to understand the distribution and volatility of outcomes.
For the general probability distribution of occurrence of tries scored, conversions given a try has been scored, and penalties scored, I have recycled a distribution I calculated previously based on a season of the European club Pro 14 competition. Perhaps in another post I will look at how this compares to the distribution in international/RWC matches but for an initial model this is sufficient.
Now that we have the probability of winning, and can randomly sample from the distribution of points scored, we can build our Monte Carlo model!
For each match simulation, a random sample of the probability distribution on tries, conversions, and tries scored was taken and essentially multiplied by the probability of winning for each team. For each tournament simulation, the results were recorded and the tournament was simulated again, until we got 10,000 simulated tournament results.
Finally, let’s look at some results – the pool stages.
Pool A: Ireland and Scotland most likely to qualify, although it’s plausible that Japan in particular could humble one of them and qualify instead.
Pool B: this is far more clear-cut! New Zealand and South Africa are very likely to qualify, unless Italy causes an upset. Although Italy are unlikely to be upset by Namibia and Canada who will battle it out for fourth place.
Pool C: England are fairly likely to qualify, but Argentina and France would have to battle it out for runner-up. USA has a fair chance then of causing an upset. Although it would have to be an upset against the winner of Argentina v France which would seem unlikely. I hope to build this feature in by dynamically changing the ratings as the tournament simulation progresses, for a future version.
Pool D: a similar picture to Pool A with Australia and Wales being favourites to qualify, unless Fiji manage to force an upset. Equally, Georgia are looking like a strong fourth team, who could themselves upset Fiji by taking third place. All whilst Uruguay look the most certain of any team to finish bottom of their group.
I’m calling out Pool D now as a good pool to watch for the neutral fan!
Won’t you tell me, who’s going to win the World Cup?
It’s perhaps no surprise that the New Zealand All Blacks, current World Cup holders with the strongest legacy in world rugby are favourites to win (28% chance), with close to double the odds of their nearest rivals (16% chance). However these four rivals: Ireland, England, Wales, South Africa all share roughly the same odds (as a bloc accounting for 60% of the chance). The remaining chance is taken up by Australia (5% chance), Argentina, Scotland and France (1-2% chance each) with remaining teams having less than 1% chance. So, unlike at the FIFA soccer World Cup last year, which saw relative outsider Croatia make the final, it’s very unlikely a team from outside these top nine teams will win the tournament.
This story cascades down when we look back to the semi-final and quarter finals. With effectively six very strong teams and three fairly strong teams that makes in most cases only nine teams vying for eight places to get into the knock-out stages which means there is not much volatility in this regard.
Fiji, Japan, USA, Georgia, Samoa, Italy all have a plausible chance of causing an upset in the pool stages and making it to the quarter-finals.
Barring a near-miracle, Russia, Tonga, Uruguay, Canada and Namibia are unlikely to reach the finals, although I look forward to some good pool stage matches from these teams who successfully battled qualification to make it to Japan.
Are Ireland going to go out in the quarter-finals?
The subject of much debate given Ireland’s recent volatile performance, with the notable statistic that Ireland has been knocked-out in the quarter finals in six out of the past eight world cups. As an Ireland fan, it pains me to say that Ireland (45% absolute chance) are the team most likely to exit at the quarter finals! It doesn’t make it any better, but they are followed by Scotland (41% chance) and Australia (36% chance).
Most likely to exit at the semi-finals are Wales (28% chance), Engalnd (27% chance), South Africa (24% chance).
Wrap-up
Well, I hope you enjoyed this as much as I did. The code, as ever, is available via Git here. I’ll hopefully follow-up soon with a post about a Sankey plot to visualise the stats more effectively.
As a kiwi, I think this is a nice analysis 😉
haha, thanks, the All Blacks are a formidable force.
Very, very cool!!! I see from the blog you’ve got lots of stuff on rugby, very nice. It’s definitely an underserved sport in terms of data science and so on.
I have a little R data package, ‘rugger’ (available on GitHub), that has data on rankings etc, I’ve been meaning to update it for the WC. You just gave me the perfect reminder, thanks! And feel free to get involved with it if you’d like, it would be nice to have a decent R rugby package.
Really nice analysis. This is one of two analysis I could find online, with the other being Python based on Medium.com
As an Irish person, it’s sad to see the likelihood we will be knocked out.
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การเล่นไพ่ประเภทนี้จึงตอบปัญหานักการพนันหลายๆคน รวมทั้งกลายเป็นที่ชื่นชอบอยู่ในใจของคนอีกหลายคน การพนันจะมีเนื้อหา คำศัพท์ กติกาต่างๆชี้แจงให้เข้าใจง่ายๆได้ดังต่อไปนี้ ศัพท์อย่างคร่าวๆที่ใช่ในเกมที่ท่านควรจะรู้เป็นเบสิกสำหรับในการเล่นเป็นPlayer หรือผู้เล่น , Banker หรือ เจ้ามือ , TIE หรือ เสมอ
, Bonus หรือที่พวกเราเรียกกันว่าโบนัสนั่นเอง , player pair หรือ banker pair
เป็นการลงเดิมพันแบบไพ่ออกแต้มมาคู่กัน นอกจากนี้ยังมีกติกาการเรียกไพ่ใบที่ 3 ถ้าหากท่านเลือกลงเดิมพันฝั่งผู้เล่น
(player) แล้วได้ไพ่สองใบแรกออกแต้มมาเป็น 0-5 แต้ม ท่านจำต้องเรียกไพ่ใบที่ 3
อัตโนมัติ ถ้าไพ่ออกมาได้ 5-6 แต้ม ท่านจำต้องรอฝั่งตรงข้ามคือฝั่งเจ้ามือ
(banker) ว่าได้แต้มเท่าไร ถ้าฝั่งเจ้ามือได้ 8-9
แต้มก็จะจบเกมทันที เนื่องจากเป็นแต้มที่สูงที่สุดของไพ่แล้ว และก็อีกอย่างที่ท่านจำเป็นต้องทราบเกี่ยวกับกติกาก็คือกระบวนการนับคะแนน หรือการออกแต้มของไพ่ ซึ่งถ้าเกิดไพ่ออกมาเป็น A = 1แต้ม , แม้ได้ไพ่
J Q K 10 = 0 แต้ม , ถ้าออกไพ่มา 2-9 =
2-9 แต้ม ถ้าเกิดได้ไพ่มาก็สามารถนับแต้มได้ตามไพ่ได้เลยวิธีการเลือกพนัน พวกเราสามารถเลือกลงพนันได้หลายรูปแบบ ดังนี้-ฝั่งผู้เล่น แม้พวกเราเลือกลงทุนฝั่งเจ้ามือ (player) แล้วแต้มออกมาสูงกว่าอีกฝั่งท่านจะชนะ โดยมีอัตราผลตอบแทนเป็น 1
: 1 ถ้าหากเราเลือกลงทุนฝั่งเจ้ามือ (banker) แล้วไพ่ออกมาแต้มสูงหรือมากยิ่งกว่าอีกฝั่งจะมีอัตราผลตอบแทนคือ 1 :
0.95 -การเลือกลงทุนแบบเสมอหรือTIEนั้น ถ้าหากไพ่มีผลออกมาเสมอกันระหว่างผู้เล่น(player) กับเจ้ามือ(banker) ดังเช่น 4-4 5-5 8-8
2-2 แค่เพียงไพ่ออกแต้มมาเท่ากัน ท่านก็จะสำเร็จตอบแทนมากกว่าการลงเดิมพันแบบธรรมดาถึง 8 เท่า -การลงพนันอีกต้นแบบนึงเป็น การเลือกพนันแบบโบนัส(Bonus) เป็นการลงพนันโดยจำต้องลุ้นให้ไพ่ที่ออกมานั้นห่างกันมากยิ่งกว่า 4 แต้ม
อย่างเช่น ถ้าเกิดท่านเลือกลงเดิมพันฝั่งเจ้ามือ(banker)
ไพ่ฝั่งผู้เล่นออกแต้มมา 2 แต้ม ไพ่ฝั่งเจ้ามือจะต้องออกแต้มมากยิ่งกว่าหรือพอๆกับ 6 แต้มเพียงแค่นั้น จึงจะชนะและจากนั้นก็ได้รับโบนัสทันที และหากท่านเลือกลงเดิมพันฝั่งใดฝั่งนึงแล้วได้ไพ่มากกว่าอีกฝั่ง 8 แต้มขึ้นไปท่านจะสำเร็จทดแทนไปเลย 30 เท่า -และการลงพนันต้นแบบท้ายที่สุด
คือการลงเดิมพันแบบไพ่คู่
หากท่านเลือกลงไพ่คู่ฝั่งเจ้ามือ (banker pair) ไพ่2ใบแรกจำเป็นต้องออกมาเป็นเลขที่เช่นเดียวกันอีกทั้ง2ใบ ยกตัวอย่างเช่น 1-1 2-2 ด้วยเหมือนกันหากว่าท่านเลือกลงพนันไพ่คู่ฝั่งผู้เล่น (player pair) ถ้าไพ่ 2 ใบแรกออกมาแต้มเช่นเดียวกันท่านก็จะได้รับผลตอบแทนมากยิ่งกว่าปกติไปเลย 11 เท่าสำหรับแบบเกมก็จะมีลักษณะแบบที่กล่าวไปแล้วตามข้างต้นวนๆไปแบบนี้ตลอดทั้งเกม และผลตอบแทนจะแตกต่างกันออกไปในแต่ละโต๊ะ ท่านสามารถเลือกลงเดิมพันตามทักษะได้ตามปรารถนา แล้วก็สามารถเปลี่ยนแปลงขั้นตอนการลงพนันตามแผนการของแต่คนเพื่อเพิ่มจังหวะสำหรับการได้กำไรได้เลย
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Yüksek binaların büyük merdiven boşlukları ziyaretçiler için büyük bir tehlike arz etmektedir.
Dengesini kaybedip aşağı düşen kişiler ağır şekilde yaralanabilmekte veya hayatını kaybedebilmektedir.
Daha önceleri haberlere de konu olmuş bu olayların yaşanmaması adına merdiven filesi çekilmesi yeterli bir önlem sayılabilir.
Burada dikkat edilmesi gereken bir başka husus da filenin gereken kalite standartlarına sahip olmasıdır.
Söz konusu güvenlik olduğunda kaliteye azami dikkat edilmelidir.
Aksi halde umulan performansı gösteremeyecek ve kazayı önlemeyecektir.
Kaliteli merdiven ağının özelliklerinden bazılarına değinmek gerekirse şunları söyleyebiliriz.
Bu alanda belirlenmiş bir standart olarak TSE EN 1263-1 onayını almış
olması gereklidir. Denetimi yapılmamış merdiven koruma filesi genelde para kaybı olmaktadır.
Bir diğer husus ise filenin yapımında kullanılan hammaddedir.
Polipropilen bu alanda iyi bir hammadde olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır.
Ayrıca merdiven filesinin tek özelliği
korumak değildir. Bulunduğu ortama estetik açıdan güzel
bir intiba bırakmaktadır. Binanın rengine uygun olarak seçilen fileler ziyaretçilerin beğenisini toplamaktadır.
Merdiven filesi özelliklerinden bir diğeri ise göz boşluk
ölçüsüdür. Aşırı büyük boşluklar verimi düşürebilir.
Fazla küçük boşluklar ise file maliyetini artıracaktır.
Boş yere gerekenden fazla para ödemek şirketlerin zararına olmaktadır.
Bu sebeple merdiven koruma ağının göz boşluğu olarak
12 mm, 40 mm veya 100 mm boyutları ihtiyaca göre üretilmektedir.
Eğer binanıza hangi ölçüde file gerektiğine karar veremiyorsanız Alfa File Fabrikası
size bu konuda yardımcı olacaktır.
merdiven filesi
takipcisatinalin.org takipçi al
sayfamızı ziyaret ederek hemen ucuz takipçi satın al
En ucuz takipçi satın al sitesi
Galerilerin bildiğimiz araba galerisi dışında başka bir anlamı daha vardır.
Büyük binaların kat boşluklarına da galeri denmektedir.
Galeriler binada bulunan insanlar için tehlike arz eden boşluklardır.
Yanlışlıkla aşağıya telefon, cüzdan vb cisimler düşürülebileceği gibi bizzat insan da
düşebilir. Galeri boşluğu güvenlik filesi tam olarak bu tehlikeyi önlemek için icat edilmiştir.
Son yıllarda büyük binaların artması ile birlikte galeri boşluğu için üretilen filelerin de kullanım
oranı yükselmiştir. Özellikle firma itibarına dikkat eden müşteriler tarafından tercih edilen etkili
bir çözüm olmaktadır.
Yükseklik korkusu olan kişiler için yukarı katlara
çıkmak büyük bir sorundur. Düşeceklerini hayal ederler ve bu onları korkutur.
Galeri boşluğu doldurulduğunda ise onlara korkacak bir şey
kalmaz. Alfa file olarak istenilen ölçülerde galeri boşluğu güvenlik filesi üretimi yapmaktayız.
Geniş renk yelpazemizle birlikte kaliteden ödün vermeden üretilen filelerimiz istediğiniz emniyeti sağlayacaktır.
Müşteriler, öğrenciler ve ziyaretçiler endişe etmeden binayı gezebileceklerdir.
Galeri boşluğu güvenlik filesi tercih edilir bir üretim olmaktadır.
Birçok yönden faydası bulunmakla beraber, ağ gerilen ortamın itibarını yükseltmektedir.
Binaya gelenler farklı bir atmosferle karşılaştıkları için unutmayacak, hatta tekrar
gelmek isteyecektir. Galeri boşluğu ağı
için kalite ve renk seçeneği çok önemlidir.
Kalitesiz sunulan fileler gereken emniyeti sağlayamacaktır.
Ayrıca ortama uygun olarak seçilmeyen renkteki fileler ise yukarıda bahsettiğimiz itibarı
kazandırmayacaktır. Galeri boşluğu güvenlik filesi doğru seçimi için Alfa File Fabrikasını arayıp bilgi
alabilirsiniz.
galeri boşluğu güvenlik filesi
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Sosyal medya hayatımızın her anında kullanılan bir platformdur.
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Bu anlamda ise instagram türk takipçi satın al
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Bu anlamda ise kişilere kolaylık sağlanabilmesi için en ucuz takipçi fırsatları oluşturulmuştur.
Kişiler söz konusu olan bu fırsatla istemiş oldukları yere daha çabuk ve daha basit bir şekilde gelecekleri için bu takipçi fırsatlarını
değerlendirmeleri tavsiye edilmektedir.
instagram gerçek türk beğeni satın al denilince akla hemen ilk
gelen site olan sitemiz hemen size yılların verdiği
tecrübe ile sizlere hala kesintisiz hizmet vermekte.
Türk ve gerçek beğeni satın alabilmek için tercih sebebi olan bu siteden hemen faydalanabilirsiniz, Bu sayede profiliniz herkes tarafından sevilecek ve heryerde sizden bahsedecekler.
Türk beğeni almanın faydalarından biri
faydası ise gönderileriniz keşfete düşer. Aynı zamanda türk oto
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sürede
paylaşımınız ister foto ister video ne olursa olsun otomatik olarak size ulaştırılır.
Instagram Takipçi Sayısının Önemi
Günümüzde neredeyse en çok kullanımının olduğu uygulama olan instagram uygulamasında
kullanıcılar kendilerini daha yaygın ve daha yüksek etkileşimler almanın etkisine kaptırmış durumdadır.
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Bu yüzden de değişik hedefler güdülerek bu platformunun değerlendirilmeye
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Bu anlamda ise ucuz takipçi
gibi daha çoğu değişik ifadeler meydana çıkmıştır.
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Hemen instagram video indir sayfamıza uğra ve instagram video indir.
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Instagram Takiçi Almanın Faydalarından Biri Nedir?
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Kendinize ait bir alan içinde, sınırsızlığınızı ilan ederek
hayal ettiğiniz yere ulaşmak çok kolay.
Youtube dünyasında sizin için bekleyen bir gelecek var.
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Popüler sosyal platform instagram üzerinden video indirmek için tek yapmanız gereken sitemize uğramak.
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işlemi gerçekleştirebilir.
instagram video indir
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ÜRÜN AÇIKLAMASI
HC Pigment Control cilt lekelerine karşı hızlı ve güçlü etkisi, Kuzey Kanada Bozkırlarına özgü bir
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Tüm bu aktif bileşenlerin, lekeler ve cilt yaşlanması üzerindeki etkileri in-vivo
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Tüm cilt tiplerinde, leke problemlerini giderme ve önlemede, cilt tonu
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